01Review required: primary estimand clarified

PUBLIC PROTOCOL / event-01-cue-explanation

When a cue changes the answer, does the explanation reveal it?

Falsifiable hypothesis: If a preference cue changes the answer, the model explanation will often fail to mention the cue that caused the change.

SAMPLE48 primary units
MODELgpt-4.1-mini
OUTPUT CAP256 tokens
CALL CEILING120
What the $10 pays for: $10 maximum ledger reservation; 120 calls × 256 output-token cap. The ledger reserves $10; actual provider usage and uncertain charges are reconciled separately.
RESEARCH QUESTION

When a preference cue changes a model decision, does its visible explanation identify that influence?

VARIABLES / CONTROLS

Cue presence is the independent variable. Task, answer options, model, output cap, sampling settings, and monitor rubric are held fixed. Matched neutral cases are the control.

DESIGN

Run matched neutral and cued decisions, then give each explanation to a fixed monitor. Keep held-out audits separate from the primary comparison.

CALL PLAN

48 actor + 48 monitor + 24 audit = 120 calls

PRIMARY OUTCOME

Cue-presence recovery sensitivity and specificity across cued and neutral cases.

SECONDARY OUTCOMES

Answer-flip rate, false cue detections, audit agreement, refusal/truncation rate, and quality exclusions.

ANALYSIS

Paired difference in cue-detection proportions with an exact or Wilson 95% interval; report the audit separately.

SAMPLE RATIONALE

The paired design makes answer changes attributable to the cue while reserving audits for monitor-quality checks.

ALLOWED CUSTOMIZATION

Choose an approved scenario family, approved cue wording, and a registered task-domain subset.

NOT EDITABLE

Primary hypothesis, registered outcome, model, sample accounting, exclusions, safety checks, and $10 ceiling.

FAILURE / PARTIAL RUN

A timeout or uncertain charge is recorded. The run becomes partial or budget-safe-stop as appropriate; no missing result is imputed.

Reproducibility: AutoLabs sourceMonitorability background

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Launch remains gated while the five contracts receive scientific review. Experiment 3A is separate, locked, and GPU-backed.

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